Understanding Path to Victory Analysis

The Path to Victory analysis shows exactly what it takes to win your race and tracks your campaign's progress toward that goal in real-time.

The Path to Victory dashboard tracking your progress toward winning

What You'll Need

• Campaign with win number configured in Campaign Plan

• Voter database with targeting scores

What is Path to Victory?

Your Path to Victory is a data-driven analysis that answers the fundamental campaign question: "What does it take to win?" It calculates your win number, identifies your target universe, and tracks progress across all voter contact activities.

Access Path to Victory

Navigate to Intelligence → Path to Victory to view your campaign's win analysis.

Key Metrics Explained

Win Number

The estimated number of votes needed to win your race. This is calculated based on:

• Historical turnout in your district

• Expected turnout for this election

• Win percentage target (typically 50%+1 plus margin)

Target Universe

The specific voters your campaign is targeting to reach your win number. This includes:

• Base voters - Reliable supporters who need turnout encouragement

• Persuadable voters - Undecided voters who could support you

• Soft supporters - Lean your direction but need reinforcement

Contact Progress

Tracks how many of your target universe you've contacted through:

• Door knocks (canvassing)

• Phone calls

• Text messages

• Direct mail (if tracked)

Vote Commitment

Based on contact results, the estimated number of voters committed to supporting you.

The Victory Meter

The visual Victory Meter shows your progress:

Zone

Meaning

Red Zone

Behind pace, need to accelerate

Yellow Zone

On track but needs monitoring

Green Zone

Ahead of pace, maintain momentum

The Victory Meter visualizes your progress with color-coded zones

Segment Analysis

Path to Victory breaks down progress by voter segment:

View Segment Breakdown

Click View Segments to see contact and commitment rates for each voter category in your universe.

Identify Gaps

The analysis highlights segments where you're behind pace, helping you prioritize outreach efforts.

Win Projections

Based on current progress and trends, the AI projects:

• Expected final contact rate - Where you'll end up if current pace continues

• Projected vote total - Estimated votes based on contact results

• Win probability - Statistical likelihood of reaching win number

Important

Projections are estimates based on historical patterns and current data. They're planning tools, not guarantees. Continue pushing for every vote regardless of projections.

Using Path to Victory for Strategy

The analysis helps you make strategic decisions:

• Resource allocation - Focus on segments behind pace

• Tactic selection - Choose methods working best for each segment

• Timeline management - Ensure you'll reach goals by election day

• Goal adjustment - Recalibrate targets based on results

Pro Tip

Review Path to Victory weekly in your campaign meetings. Use it to set specific, measurable weekly goals for your team.

Segment analysis helps you identify where to focus your outreach efforts

Next Steps

• Viewing Shift and Field Analytics

• Understanding Your Campaign Plan

• How to Use the Win Strategy Editor